Sustainable water resource management under hydrological uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
[1] A proper understanding of the sources and effects of uncertainty is needed to achieve the goals of reliability and sustainability in water resource management and planning. Many studies have focused on uncertainties relating to climate inputs (e.g., precipitation and temperature), as well as those related to supply and demand relationships. In the end-to-end projection of the hydrological impacts of climate variability, however, hydrological uncertainties have often been ignored or addressed indirectly. In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of hydrological uncertainties for reliable water resources management. We assess the uncertainties associated with hydrological inputs, parameters, and model structural uncertainties using an integrated Bayesian uncertainty estimator framework. Subsequently, these uncertainties are propagated through a simple reservoir management model in order to evaluate how various operational rules impact the characteristics of the downstream uncertainties, such as the width of the uncertainty bounds. By considering different operational rules, we examine how hydrological uncertainties impact reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of the management system. The results of this study suggest that a combination of operational rules (i.e., an adaptive operational approach) is the most reliable and sustainable overall management strategy.
منابع مشابه
Management of water resources under uncertainty: what does the future hold?
Current predictions indicate that the climate in Australia will become more variable and extreme. This will increase pressure on fragile natural resources and sound water resource management will become increasingly important. Forecasting is therefore essential in both agriculture and natural resource management. Is the current hydrological science up to this task and what tools are available f...
متن کاملDecision making in an uncertain world: information-gap modeling in water resources management
Information-gap (info-gap) modeling is put forth as a basic approach for enhancing decision making under uncertainty, especially when there is a high level of uncertainty and little information is available. The great need for having realistic techniques for describing severe uncertainty can be illustrated in water resources management by pointing out the wide range of uncertainties present in ...
متن کاملComparison of GRACE with in situ hydrological measurement data shows storage depletion in Hai River basin, Northern China
Water storage change has implications not only for the hydrological cycle, but also for sustainable water resource management in especially semi-arid river basins. Satellite/remote sensing techniques have gained increasing application in monitoring basin and regional hydrological processes in recent decades. In this study, the latest version of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) is...
متن کاملApplication of Water Evaluation and Planning Model for Integrated Water Resources Management: Case Study of Langat River Basin, Malaysia
Due to the effects of climate change and the increasing demand on water, sustainable development in term of water resources management has become a major challenge. In this context, the application of simulation models is useful to duel with the uncertainty and complexity of water system by providing stakeholders with the best solution. This paper outlines an integrated management planning netw...
متن کامل